Influential National Political Report Says Hawaii Senate Race To ‘Lean Democrat’
Cook Political Report analyst Jennifer Duffy said Thursday (Oct. 4) that Hawaii’s U.S. Senate race is no longer a “toss up” and now leans Democrat. Excerpts:
When Democratic Sen. Daniel Akaka announced his retirement, Republicans hoped that an open seat might provide them with an opportunity to put a crack in Hawaii’s solidly blue political varnish. …
When Linda Lingle announced, we put this race into the Toss Up column, much to Democrats’ dismay. From our perspective, Lingle is a proven vote-getter who had won two statewide elections and came within 5,254 votes of winning a third. She is a moderate, who would be very hard to tag as a fire-breathing conservative. …
Lingle’s task has to been to convince voters to separate their votes for President from their votes for the Senate. With 33 days left in the race, it doesn’t appear that voters are receptive to that idea. …
The two recent polls give Mazie Hirono a healthy lead over Lingle. … A Merriman River Group (D) (IVR) survey for Honolulu Civil Beat (September 26-28 of 1,684 likely voters) gave Hirono a 55-percent to 39-percent advantage over Lingle. … Given how little time is left, Lingle would need a very big break to overcome the factors working against her. …
—Chad Blair
Posted by on 10/04/2012 at 3:33PM HST (7 months ago)
